Intelligent decision system based on the evidential reasoning approach and its applications

Abstract

Intelligent decision system (IDS) is a window-based software package that has been developed on the basis of the evidential reasoning (ER) approach, a recent development in handling hybrid multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) problems with uncertainties. In this paper, the evidential reasoning approach will be briefly described first, and its major differences from and the relationships with conventional MCDA methods will also be discussed. Then the main features, advantages and benefits of IDS will be demonstrated and explained using two application examples: supplier pre-qualification assessment and customer satisfaction survey analysis, which have been investigated as part of the research projects led by the authors and funded by the UK government and the EC. It is concluded in the paper that the ER approach can be used not only to deal with problems that traditional methods can solve, but also to model and analyse more complicated decision problems that traditional methods are incapable of handling.